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Last week, the A-share market fluctuated widely, and auto stocks also showed a trend of differentiation. FAW sedan, Great Wall Motor and other stocks were active repeatedly. However, SAIC Group, GAC Group and other individual stocks are in a downturn. So, how to view the pattern of such differentiation of the automobile sector?
There are two main reasons for the current differentiation trend of auto stocks. First, the current auto production and sales have maintained a steady growth momentum. Data shows that from January to March this year, the cumulative output was 5.397 million, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, and the cumulative sales volume was 5.424 million, a year-on-year increase of 13.1%.
Second, the expectation of purchase restriction is expanding. Following the implementation of auto purchase restriction in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and other first tier cities, auto purchase restriction has shown a trend of extending from large cities to second tier and third tier cities, which means that auto purchase restriction has become a trend, which will inevitably lead to the industrial growth space of auto manufacturers.
However, the market capacity of the automobile industry is vast, and some automobile manufacturers will certainly break through the ceiling of the industry.
First, industrial policies. At present, domestic brands of automobiles are facing new development opportunities, especially some automobile manufacturers that are suitable for official vehicles will benefit. In fact, this is also the reason why the stock price of FAW sedan continues to be strong recently. Because more and more information shows that Hongqi sedan, as our own brand, is expected to become a business vehicle, which means that the industrial prospects of FAW sedan will be more optimistic.
At the same time, China has also increased support for new energy cars in recent years. Some analysts even suggested that in cities where car purchase is restricted, new energy vehicles should also be supported, such as natural gas and gasoline hybrid vehicles, and gasoline and electric hybrid new energy vehicles. Therefore, auto manufacturers with strong reserves in new energy vehicles such as BYD are undoubtedly expected to encounter new opportunities for industrial development.
The second is the consumption hot spot. From the perspective of the current industrial development pattern, the big consumption hot spot is undoubtedly SUV (urban off-road vehicle). With the help of this consumption hot spot, Great Wall Motors' performance has continued to grow rapidly. The H-share price of Great Wall Motors has risen from 1 Hong Kong dollar to the current 34 Hong Kong dollars in five years, which is really amazing. This trend reflects the popularity of SUVs in the middle class. Therefore, Yueda Kia has also introduced the Lion Run SUV, and Yueda Investment has also achieved high growth in performance.
Because of this, insiders believe that future consumption hot spots may still lead to new growth stocks. However, the future consumption hot spot may be the automobile consumption increased by the income of farmers in the third and fourth tier cities and after urbanization. Therefore, the automobile products of about 60000 yuan may sell well, which is often the strength of self owned brand cars. This may also be a direct driving force source for the rapid development of Jianghuai Automobile and Chang'an Automobile in recent years. Therefore, the performance of auto stocks with low-end cars as the core is still expected to be active, which can break through the constraints of the industrial ceiling.
Therefore, in the operation, it is suggested that investors can also follow the industry hot spots to find strong stocks. For now, SUV, Yueda Investment, Great Wall Motors and other stocks are still good choices. Second, the localization of official vehicles. FAW cars are a good choice. Third, the sales of low-end cars after the increase of farmers' income are hot, and Chang'an, BYD, JAC and other varieties can be tracked.
